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New Website

We are proud to announce the launch of our new, fully redesigned Oxford Economics website. We developed this next-generation decision-support platform to better serve our international clients and reflect our wider remit: to forecast country, industry and city trends and analyse their impact on business strategies and public policies.

Our site offers a number of major improvements:

  • Expands our portfolio of country, industry and city coverage.
  • Provides more complete and up-to-date information on our products, services and capabilities.
  • Combines the latest content management system with intuitive search and navigation.
  • Adds many interactive features.
  • Offers greater reliability and scalability.

Click here to review our new site.

  3 December 2012
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Oxford Economics' Blog

The path to fiscal sustainability

The United States is nearing a critical macroeconomic threshold with its debt-to-GDP ratio pushing towards the 90% level usually associated with unsustainable deficits. Debt rating agencies are threatening to downgrade the US unless action is taken soon and, without a clear road map to sustainability, there is a risk that financial markets may lose confidence in government finances. In order to reverse course, the country must decide on a credible scheme of gradual spending cuts, tax increases, or both. But to what extent could US policymakers undertake deficit reduction while delivering strong economic growth and reducing unemployment substantially?

There are both cyclical and structural reasons why the US is now at this point. On the cyclical side, the Lehman Brothers crisis required high levels of government spending to counteract a Great Depression-style event. On the structural side, health care costs and the aging demographic of the country are weighing on its antipoverty programs and safety nets. The number of people aged 65 or older will increase by roughly one-third over the next decade. Costs of health care on a per-person basis will continue to increase without reforms aimed at improving productivity in the medical industry. Over the past 25 years, healthcare spending increased 2% faster than GDP per capita, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Read more here: Article

Catalan elections warn of wider social malaise

Regional elections in Catalonia, the wealthiest region of Spain, delivered a majority of seats for parties seeking a referendum on independence. But the main Catalan political party lost seats in the election, meaning that the leadership of the secessionist movement has been weakened. Although they could still try to push ahead with plans for a referendum, the immediate prospect of a constitutional crisis in Spain has dimmed.

The government should now be able to turn its full attention to the financial crisis engulfing Spain. But recent events in Catalonia provide a signal of the broader discontent within Spain at the mounting economic and social costs of the government’s reform efforts. Unemployment has already reached 25% of the workforce and the dire labour market situation is only likely to get worse as we expect the economy to remain in recession throughout next year.

Read more here: Article

Fresh challenges ahead for Latin America

Fresh turmoil hit Argentina this week as legal battles intensified over payments to “holdout” creditors of international debt and it only narrowly avoided the immediate threat of default. This comes in a year that has seen battles with the IMF over economic data, with Spain over the seizure of a subsidiary owned by Repsol, and with holders of foreign currency deposits. Growth has slowed, and is expected to be only 1.7% this year, while the true rate of inflation may be as high as 25%, prompting continued social unrest.

Meanwhile President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto prepares to take the helm in Mexico, where the most pressing issues – apart from the implications of US policies – are how best to achieve further economic reform. And in Brazil the main challenge is how to kick-start the economy again after a year of disappointingly low growth.

Read more here: Article

  2 December 2012
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Forthcoming report to highlight significant benefits for the Albanian economy from the construction and operation of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline

Oxford Economics’ (OE) presented its findings from its study/report (commissioned by the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)) at the Albanian Gas Symposium, which analyses the potential economic benefits that TAP could have for Albania. The study is based on a combination of publicly available statistics, TAP’s own estimated data and the OE’s economic projections, to provide a detailed forecast of the pipeline’s potential impact on Albania.   25 November 2012
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By-Country Industry Forecast Service

We are publishing new on-line reports providing detailed forecasts for prospects in over 80 industrial sectors across 68 different economies. The new service provides:

  • Forecasts for output growth on an annual basis over the next 10 years for over 80 sectors
  • Charts and tables highlighting key industrial output trends, past and future
  • Access to our Sectoral Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts to download for your own analysis and reports
  • Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Industrial Model
View example forecasts:
             Poland          China

See full range of countries covered ....

Country Economic Forecast Service

We are publishing new on-line country economic forecasts every day covering economic and political developments and prospects in over 175 countries, linked to our forecast databank:

  • Tailor-made for busy executives, the forecasts tell you everything you need to know for your business planning
  • Access to our Macro Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts for a host of economic and social indicators plus detailed tourism statistics
  • Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Model (the most widely used commercial model in the world)
View example forecasts:
             Thailand          Germany          Czech Republic

See full range of countries covered ....

Analysis for Better Decisions

Analysis for Better Decisions

Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - is a world-leader in quantitative analysis and rigorous economic forecasting. Our evidence-based approach to economic analysis helps businesses, governments and international organisations make the right investment, policy and market decisions.

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