| 15 April 2013 | Disappointing activity data in early 2013, but full-year growth forecast raised slightly to 3.2% after revisions to 2012 GDP |
| 15 March 2013 | Disappointing January activity data at odds with survey readings so only very modest downward revision to Q1, with 2013 GDP expected to grow 3.1% |
| 11 February 2013 | GDP growth forecast for 2013 downgraded to 3.2% following weak growth data in Q4 |
| 4 January 2013 | Strong service PMI readings suggest growth likely to pick up in 2012Q4, so we have raised our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% |
| 27 November 2012 | Growth below trend in Q3, but data for Q4 point to stabilisation and we still expect gradual rebound next year despite pressure on household incomes |
| 19 October 2012 | Latest data show growth stabilising at slightly below-trend, consistent with our forecast of a soft landing, but above-target inflation means another rate rise soon |
| 21 September 2012 | Surprise rate hike implemented this month to address growing inflationary risks, despite economy undergoing a moderate slowdown |
| 3 September 2012 | Activity resilient despite weak external demand, with consumer spending still strong helped by buoyant labour market; soft landing still expected |
| 27 July 2012 | Growing signs of dual-speed economy, with buoyant labour market driving robust consumer spending but industry struggling due to weak external demand |
| 2 July 2012 | Significant downward revision to oil price forecast for H2 means we have lowered our 2012 growth forecast to 3.8% |
| 29 May 2012 | GDP growth of 4.9% in Q1 was slightly above our forecast, but poor April data mean our projection of 2012 growth stays at 4.3% |
| 25 April 2012 | Continued signs of a dual-speed economy with buoyant service sector activity underpinned by robust consumer spending but more muted industrial outlook |
| 30 March 2012 | Higher oil prices imply marginal upward revision to GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 4.3% |
| 29 February 2012 | GDP growth forecast for 2012 raised to 4.1% on back of higher oil prices and stronger than expected Q4 2011 outturn as heavy state spending continues |
| 18 January 2012 | Some signs that growth was stronger than expected in Q4 as consumer spending stayed buoyant, but 2012 GDP growth forecast left at 3.7% as uncertain politics erodes confidence |
| 9 December 2011 | Growth picked up to 4.8% in Q3 and positive signs in Q4 mean that 2011 growth is now seen at 3.9%, before modest slowdown to 3.7% in 2012 as oil prices fall and EU demand weakens |
| 24 October 2011 | Stagnating output points to loss of momentum in Q3, but solid consumer spending helped by lower inflation should underpin GDP growth of 3.8% this year and 4.4% in 2012 |
| 30 August 2011 | Growth slowed to 3.4% in Q2 despite strong output and sales data, cutting 2011 forecast to 3.8%, but high energy prices and falling inflation to see faster pace in 2012 |
| 19 July 2011 | Fiscal stimulus in 2012 budget to support domestic demand, holding GDP growth above 4% but also keeping inflation quite high so more interest rate rises likely |
| 20 June 2011 | Solid 1.1% rise in Q1 GDP, but still dependent upon trade, with consumer demand and investment subdued, so 2011 growth forecast lowered to 4.5% |
| 12 May 2011 | Growth probably slowed in Q1, but will pick up in rest of year as real earnings rise, but interest rates raised last week to try to get inflation down from close to 10% |
| 6 April 2011 | High oil prices to lift GDP growth to just over 5% this year from 4% in 2010, but inflation still at 9.5% in March to bring more monetary policy tightening soon |
| 24 February 2011 | Pick-up in Q4 lifted 2010 growth to 4% but January data point to some slowdown; inflation seems to have risen further from 9.6% in January and will bring rate rise soon |
| 28 January 2011 | Rate rise expected imminently after inflation hit 8.8% in December and looks set to head higher, but tightening process to be gradual as RUB rises and growth picks up slowly |
| 13 December 2010 | Temporary factors led to GDP decline of 0.6% in Q3, with inflation above 8% in November, but 2010 growth forecast cut to 3.6% despite signs of pick-up in Q4 |
| 28 October 2010 | Both output and consumer demand lost momentum in Q3. However, this setback, largely a result of the summer’s extreme weather conditions, is likely to be temporary as the fundamental drivers have not changed |
| 29 September 2010 | Signs of slower growth in Q3 – as adverse weather affected activity – likely to be quickly reversed in Q4 but impact on inflation now heading for 7% will be more significant |
| 26 August 2010 | Impact of extreme weather conditions to lift inflation from 5.5% in July and dampen GDP growth, now seen at 4.3% in 2010 despite pick-up to 5.2% in Q2 |
| 29 July 2010 | Q2 data on output and imports point to accelerating growth. However, increased uncertainty about global economic prospects and financial conditions may constrain GDP growth to 5% in 2010 as a whole |
| 22 June 2010 | Buoyant industrial output and car sales point to 2% rise in Q2 GDP, with full-year growth seen at 5% as contagion from EU woes remains limited |
| 27 May 2010 | Q1 GDP rose 0.6%, with year-on-year growth accelerating to 2.9%, on track for full-year expansion of 5% as output continues to climb in Q2 |
| 28 April 2010 | Growth forecast for 2010 lifted to 5% despite slightly disappointing Q4 result, as consumer rebound gathers momentum and oil prices rise further |
| 25 March 2010 | Activity subdued in Q1 after 8% GDP drop in 2009, but upside risks to 2010 growth forecast of 4.3% are rising as rate cuts look set to continue |
| 17 February 2010 | Official data put 2009 GDP decline at 8% and, with only modest 4.3% rebound seen this year, rate cuts may resume this month |
| 20 January 2010 | Domestic demand began to recover in Q4 and GDP seen growing 4.3% this year helped by further rate cuts, but oil prices remain key |
| 10 December 2009 | Data mixed but growth seen continuing in Q4 as consumer demand shows signs of pick-up, lifting 2010 GDP growth forecast to 4.3% |
| 4 November 2009 | GDP rise in Q3 signals end of recession, but weak domestic demand will hold down 2010 growth to 3.6% after 9% drop this year |
| 29 September 2009 | Modest recovery expected in H2 despite some disappointing data as oil prices rise and government spending kicks in |
| 25 August 2009 | GDP posted 0.5% quarterly fall in Q2 as output stabilised, but overall 9.5% decline seen for 2009 despite H2 upturn and fiscal stimulus |
| 27 July 2009 | GDP stabilised in Q2 after steep decline in Q1, and mild growth may resume in H2 as public spending kicks in and interest rates fall |
| 25 June 2009 | Some hopeful signs in recent months, including rising oil prices, but GDP fall of over 7.5% now forecast despite heavy spending stimulus |
| 19 May 2009 | GDP forecast to fall 7% in 2009 after slide in exports and investment trigger 9.5% annual decline in Q1 |
| 1 April 2009 | Liquidity squeeze triggering major industry cutbacks and pressure on consumers, with GDP now seen dropping 6% |
| 6 February 2009 | Slide in rouble and FX reserves adding to problems caused by lower oil revenues – GDP now seen falling 2.4% this year |
| 4 December 2008 | Growth forecast for 2009 cut to 2.8% as RUB fall triggers US$150bn slide in reserves since July and interest rates are raised 200bp |
| 4 November 2008 | Financial market turmoil, lower oil prices and heavy capital outflows may cut growth to under 5% in 2009 |
| 22 September 2008 | Capital flight and stock market volatility cast doubt over prospects, but GDP growth still seen around 7% this year and next |
| 28 July 2008 | Booming oil revenues sustaining buoyant consumer spending and investment, but inflation risks persist despite stronger RUB |
| 10 June 2008 | GDP growth seen holding close to 8% this year and current account surplus surging to almost US$180bn as oil prices rise further |
| 30 April 2008 | GDP growth put at 8% in Q1 as rapid real wage growth continues to support strong consumption but also keeps inflation high |
| 28 March 2008 | Very strong real wage rises driving rapid consumer demand growth, keeping inflation in double digits this year |
| 28 February 2008 | 8.1% growth in 2007, reflecting booming consumption and investment. Some slowing expected this year. Inflation at over 12% is a concern |
| 29 January 2008 | Growth seen slowing to 6.5% in 2008, but double-digit inflation to persist throughout the year |
| 7 December 2007 | Inflation heading for 12% by end-year as GDP growth remains above 7% and wage growth is still over 20% |
| 31 October 2007 | GDP growth put at 7.5% in January-September as private consumption remains strong, but inflation jumps to 11.4% in October |
| 20 September 2007 | Presidential manoeuvring begins as capital flows out in August; growth still strong but inflation is above target |
| 6 August 2007 | GDP growth now expected to be 7.5% this year on the back of booming consumer spending and investment. Reserves soar as rouble appreciation is kept to minimum |
| 12 June 2007 | Buoyant economy and strong capital inflows lift reserves above US$400bn but raise inflation risks |
| 26 April 2007 | Growth forecast for 2007 raised to 7.1% after strong investment and industrial output lift Q1 expansion to 7.9% |
| 26 March 2007 | Strong Q1 industrial output points to GDP growth holding around 6.5%, February inflation falls into target range |
| 15 February 2007 | Strong growth to continue in 2007 after 6.7% last year, driven by impact of high oil revenues on consumer spending and investment |
| 24 January 2007 | GDP growth forecast raised as investment boom and expansive fiscal policy sustain domestic demand |
| 14 December 2006 | GDP growth at 6.6% in Q3 and looking strong heading into 2007, but inflation still just above target |
| 20 November 2006 | Lower oil prices to bring budget surplus down to 4.2% of GDP in 2007, growth seen slowing slightly to 6.2% |
| 23 October 2006 | Continued strong GDP growth seen in Q3, inflation heading lower |
| 19 September 2006 | GDP growth rebounds to 7.4% in Q2, full-year expansion of over 6.5% seen |
| 26 July 2006 | H1 growth hits 6.3% but industry slowing under pressure from rising RUB; inward investor interest stays commodity focused as energy agenda advances at G8 summit |
| 17 July 2006 | Q2 net capital inflow helps lift growth while subduing inflation via stronger RUB; G8 summit deals confirm investor interest in energy, heightened by new trade deals |
| 3 July 2006 | Growth picks up and inflation slows towards target in Q2, end to exchange controls and Paris Club debt; but energy mistrust unlikely to be eased by G8 summit |
| 21 June 2006 | Q1 growth of 5.5% pushes 2006 forecasts above 6%, but expansion remains energy-reliant and state-led, with financial liberalisation adding to instability risks |
| 7 June 2006 | Ownership and market-access restrictions extending to key energy assets remain WTO entry block, as record oil exports widen budget surplus but raise inflation risk |
| 25 May 2006 | Share-price falls reflect fragile confidence in non-energy assets, due to lack of transparency and risk to non-oil growth as RUB rise used to rescue inflation target |
| 9 May 2006 | Oil output recovery keeps H2 growth strong while inflation subsides; falling debt and rising EU energy needs help rebut US criticism and maintain inward investment |
| 25 April 2006 | Refusal to deregulate energy markets worsens political tensions with US and EU, but keeps up investor appeal, with non-oil sectors main victims of WTO delay |
| 13 April 2006 | Faster end-2005 growth followed up with Q1 inflation decline, but state utility-led growth remains fragile, masks slower progress in non-commodity industries |
| 28 March 2006 | New EU, Chinese energy deals underline global commodity centrality, but Q1 output and investment slowdown highlights tightening constraints on non-oil economy |
| 20 March 2006 | Increased respect abroad due to energy supplies reflects in ruling party poll gains, as interventionist response to inflation surge further weakens cabinet liberals |
| 8 March 2006 | Growing pressure for RUB revaluation as inflation overshoots despite wide fiscal surplus; new resource law keeps key sectors open, recognising large investment need |
| 13 February 2006 | Debt reduction and convertibility plans aim to lift inward investment from 2007, but 6% growth target at risk from public investment neglect, inflation and bank fragility |
| 1 February 2006 | Growth and inflation set to overshoot again in 2006 as revived VAT cut adds to fiscal relaxation; G7 recognise energy leverage, but service deregulation stalls WTO entry |
| 19 January 2006 | Energy exports’ brighter side to be shown at G8 summit, as Iran diplomacy counters gas tensions; private foreign borrowing boosts investment but invites call for curbs |
| 3 January 2006 | Strong growth, high inflation to continue as energy industries gain most from G8 presidency initiatives; centralisation, oil boom remain brakes on economic reform |
| 14 December 2005 | Investment boom from rising capital inflows still depends on structural reform revival; leverage over EU underlined, but tensions with US obstructing WTO entry |
| 5 December 2005 | Economy and capital market revival improves foreign relations ahead of G8 presidency, but internal conflict continues over inflation curbs and structural reform |
| 22 November 2005 | Oil boosts diplomacy but masks continued structural problems as Putin elevates close aides to oversee infrastructure drive from sharply expanded 2006 budget |
| 10 November 2005 | New credit upgrades not yet reflected in general business climate, as political risk cautions oil investment while regulation and stronger RUB restrain other sectors |
| 26 October 2005 | Rethink of natural resource law and tax cuts raise hope of reform resuming after disruptive energy reorganisation; growth reviving, but inflation stays above target |
| 13 October 2005 | Cordial EU summit reflects leverage given by record oil output and export growth; surge in natural resource investment continues to offset wider industrial problems |
| 30 September 2005 | Kudrin secures further debt repayment but fights to stop budget surplus shrinking in 2006, as oil-backed borrowing spree adds to overheating risk |
| 19 September 2005 | Faster Q2 growth and slower Q3 inflation extend reprieve for economic reformers, whose challenge is to channel record public wealth into productive investment |
| 6 September 2005 | Fiscal reins to loosen in 2006, but still tight enough for higher ratings to drive credit boom, improving prospects for investment recovery to extend beyond oil |
| 20 July 2005 | Q2 growth quickens, but investment restraint linked to politicised restructuring puts oil recovery at risk; inflation overshoot unavoidable despite big state debt repayment |
| 29 June 2005 | Q2 growth further below official target as investment and exports fail to take up slack from tighter budget; investor fears persist despite clearer presidential pledges |
| 20 June 2005 | Fiscal surplus peak this year too low to avoid inflation overshoot; revived state energy ownership unlikely to accelerate restructuring or subsidy withdrawal |
| 7 June 2005 | Fiscal surplus shrinking again as higher social spending approved; threat of further Gazprom share purchase delay raises political pressure on other state energy firms |
| 23 May 2005 | Overheating risk fades as Paris Club deal diverts more oil funds to debt repayment; new EU pacts, Gazprom plans improve portfolio picture ahead of that for FDI |
| 11 May 2005 | Improved EU dialogue boosts trade prospects, but political risk still restrains investment as slower growth and inflation overshoot keep reformers on defensive |
| 27 April 2005 | Final Yukos bills and sentences leave wider tax and regulatory uncertainty, as stalled energy restructurings cast doubt on Putin’s will and ability to stay behind reform |
| 11 April 2005 | Growth fears promote industrial peacemaking, but raise risk of fiscal slippage curbing investment needed to sustain oil boom and prolonging inflation overshoot |
| 30 March 2005 | Diplomatic agenda moves closer into line with energy and industry liberalisation, but political risk still restraining investment needed to arrest growth slowdown |
| 14 March 2005 | Energy liberalisation plans stay in motion as debts obstruct officially backed oil/gas merger; internal security unlikely to be strengthened by Chechen rebel leader death |
| 3 March 2005 | Slowdown incites new tax cuts and spending pledges despite risk to inflation target; energy consolidation plans advance as oil growth pause highlights investment need |
| 17 February 2005 | Putin agrees to rein in tax probes and use oil to repay debt, but business conditions still marred by oil-led slowdown, regulation and lagging utility reform |
| 4 February 2005 | Energy prices pose inevitable uncertainty for budget and GDP growth, but even sharply lower oil prices would not trigger recession |
| 28 January 2005 | Uncertain investment climate slows expansion despite commodity boom; oil-funded welfare boost confirms political barriers to broader channelling of natural wealth |
| 19 January 2005 | Welfare protests highlight public-sector reform need, but cabinet liberals are most likely targets of ensuing reshuffle, as growth slows sharply and inflation overshoots |
| 10 January 2005 | Reformers in retreat as power plans delayed and key Yukos assets returned to state control, reflecting energy’s re-entanglement with security and foreign policy |
| 16 December 2004 | Sharp Q3 slowdown points to growth below 6% in 2005 even if oil price stays strong; highlights cabinet disquiet at retreat from fiscal discipline and structural reform |
| 2 December 2004 | Conciliatory Ukraine stance reflects Moscow’s confidence in energy leverage over EU and near-abroad; oil boost to creditor confidence not shared by direct investors |
| 24 November 2004 | Creditor perceptions improving but Yukos affair still adding to investment risk; return of energy monopolies could slow restructuring and impede trade integration |
| 10 November 2004 | Faster RUB appreciation to curb inflation but worsen growth slowdown in 2005, which will encourage looser budget and more industrial consolidation |
| 1 November 2004 | Growth to slow and inflation overshoot in 2004 as stronger RUB and slower reform curb investment and oil boom opens inward investment to political choice |
| 20 October 2004 | Revived investor interest reflects ratings optimism, but political and investment risks remain as RUB strength and investment caution threaten slowdown in 2005 |
| 6 October 2004 | More foreign ownership limits to be relaxed as investors seize energy openings; but lagging non-oil sectors and inflation overshoot point to slowdown in 2005 |
| 28 September 2004 | Oil firms return to acquisition trail and eurobond appetite revives as Putin affirms openness to commodity investment and calms fears over security clampdown |
| 16 September 2004 | Putin tightens grip on power in aftermath of Beslan, liberalising energy ownership to placate investor opinion and exploit US-EU policy difference |
| 7 September 2004 | Beslan makes Putin’s case for tougher security and anti-terrorism effort, but confirms southern border deterioration that could damage trade and budget |
| 1 September 2004 | Revenues boost 2005 budget but looser fiscal policy still on way as state targets tax cuts and debt reduction to revive investment after recent confidence shocks |
| 30 July 2004 | Re-concentration of financial flows and redistribution of oil assets impede political risk reduction, as oil price strength adds to problems for non-oil sector |
| 21 July 2004 | Bank risks recede but Yukos break-up renews fear of state destabilising key sectors and curbing efficiency gains by sheltering those whose bosses retain political favour |
| 12 July 2004 | Central bank moves to avert wider bank collapse, but Yukos shadow lengthens as new administration struggles to shield corporate strategy from wider political battles |
| 5 July 2004 | Energy liberalisation delayed amid pressure for tighter budget to stop overheating, which endangers inflation target; bank strains deter monetary tightening |
| 24 June 2004 | New rebel strikes boost case for defence and welfare spending that may cut 2005 fiscal surplus; monetary and industrial policy risks still impede non-oil investment |
| 14 June 2004 | G8 confirms new global energy and security centrality, helping tougher dealing with major trading partners and inward investors and underpinning strong H1 growth |
| 7 June 2004 | External surplus supports faster expansion and foreign acquisition by mineral giants, but export and GDP growth set to slow as external surplus lifts real RUB rate |
| 1 June 2004 | Putin adds tough inflation target to bold growth plans, but faster energy price rises on way as WTO demands end to subsidy and producers seek new pipeline finance |
| 19 May 2004 | Higher oil taxes to take effect in Q3 as data confirm extreme wealth imbalance, raising incentive to tilt budget windfall from tax cuts to better social provision |
| 11 May 2004 | Gain from oil price and output surge offset by reversals in Chechnya and Georgia; doubts grow on Putin’s ability to spread sources or destinations of new wealth |
| 6 May 2004 | Slacker commodity prices and industrial policy concerns restrain asset prices more than output growth as new EU commercial flank deters ‘near abroad’ opportunism |
| 29 April 2004 | Companies position for increased EU-Russia trade as main disputes resolved ahead of enlargement; strong Q1 growth, share-price pause help dampen overheating fears |
| 19 April 2004 | State runs up budget surplus to combat inflation and asset price rise, as central bank maintains RUB strategy; compromises on EU trade ahead of enlargement |
| 7 April 2004 | Growth and budget outlook improving with global oil prices, but calls for more tax cuts held in check by overheating fears as politics prolong net capital outflow |
| 25 March 2004 | Trade and investment needs offset tougher foreign policy talk as oil-driven growth boosts investor confidence and smooths path to enlarged EU trade deal |
| 16 March 2004 | Reformers win new cabinet and state agency posts, leaping from electoral wreckage of own parties, as Putin prioritises growth, infrastructure and diversification |
| 9 March 2004 | Putin preview offers unclear picture of political life after re-election, with Kremlin-compliant liberals replacing those who designed current programme |
| 25 February 2004 | Government change lifts hope of faster reform after election, but greater executive power raises risk of oil wealth avoiding wider structural change |
| 23 February 2004 | Capital inflows surge as Putin rises above oligarch battles, but overheating risk highlights supply-side weakness, at which next administration must target oil wealth |
| 9 February 2004 | Putin risks embarrassment of electoral riches as rivals mis-register; new twists in global pipeline politics could add economic dimension to second term isolation |
| 29 January 2004 | US echoes democracy warnings as Putin’s challengers fade away; new regime can speed up reforms, but control advantages weaken its motive |
| 19 January 2004 | Oil-driven rise in growth and fiscal surplus in 2003 raising scope to rebuild state resource industry control during Putin’s inevitable second term |
| 6 January 2004 | Putin set for landslide re-election as challengers lie low and party gains two-thirds Duma majority; oil to underpin strong 2004 growth, investment shifting east |
| 11 December 2003 | Pro-Putin swing too strong for commercial comfort, raising fear that oil revenues will sap incentive for wider reform despite increased power to enforce it |
| 4 December 2003 | Wider power base will enable extended tax net and state hold on energy sector, as Putin prepares for more economic and foreign policy independence in second term |
| 18 November 2003 | Oil sector confidence returns as data confirm its role in growth and export revival; but Yukos affair dents prospects for investment in wider industrial base |
| 6 November 2003 | Growth and inflation trends favourable as investors look beyond Yukos; investment needs force continued private partnership in main resource sectors |
| 29 October 2003 | Long-awaited share fall sparked by Yukos arrest, but substitution of multinational for magnate holding could speed its recovery; political plurality is longer-term loser |
| 17 October 2003 | Budget surplus and rapid growth support investment grade status, but inflation testing upper target as rising private demand strains non-oil supply side |
| 8 October 2003 | Ongoing political problems underlie big wins for pro-Putin candidates in Chechnya and St Petersburg, as political pressure weighs more heavily on industrial policy |
| 23 September 2003 | Budget clears first hurdle as 7% H1 growth confirms its realism; oil export capacity limits confirm investment requirements are focus of summits with US |
| 10 September 2003 | Growth remains commodity-led but should underpin Putin’s parliamentary hold as opposition struggles to coordinate before December elections |
| 28 August 2003 | Growth and inflation above target as investment and exports drive energy-focused upturn; 2004 budget on course after affordable spending concessions |
| 31 July 2003 | Growth continues and inflation slows as faster demand growth revives investment; still marred by terror attacks and possibly politicised oligarchy probe |
| 21 July 2003 | Investment revival drives above-target H1 growth, but business climate marred by latest big-business probe and pre-election intensification of Chechnya protest |
| 4 July 2003 | Oil-related diplomacy stepped up in line with record-breaking production, but need for foreign help with energy investment limits its foreign policy use |
| 23 June 2003 | Perceived loss of influence at home and abroad and slow growth dividend is sapping government’s support and may blunt reforms for last six months of its term |
| 9 June 2003 | Cabinet approves 2004 budget parameters, including lower tax burden and 5% GDP growth; World Bank warns of financial crisis without banking reform |
| 29 May 2003 | Yukos to embark on expansion following supply/pipeline agreement with CNPC of China; oil production up 11% in January-April, GDP grows 6.6% |
| 22 May 2003 | Putin calls for doubling of GDP by 2010 and criticises lack of progress on administrative reform; industrial output up 6.3% in January April |
| 15 May 2003 | Fitch upgrades sovereign rating to just below investment grade following strong Q1 growth and reflecting stable debt servicing outlook; inflation eases in April |
| 1 May 2003 | Government approves fiscal plans for 2004-05, including lower VAT and higher taxes on fuels; strong Q1 encourages 2003 official GDP growth revision to 5% |
| 23 April 2003 | Industrial output up 6% and GDP 6.4% in Q1 on strong oil prices; Kasyanov warns against strong RUB as non-oil industry struggles |
| 14 April 2003 | Kasyanov promises tax cuts to raise growth alongside moderate reduction in spending in 2004 – more needed to bring down inflation in long run |
| 3 April 2003 | Current account surplus rises to USD11.9bn in Q1 on oil price surge; prices to ease in Q2 and H2 but war should ensure strong revenues |
| 26 March 2003 | GDP up 6.1% in January-February, 2003 growth of 4.5% still possible despite war uncertainties; 2004 picture less clear as government warns of sharp slowdown |
| 20 March 2003 | Official GDP forecast raised to 4.5% after strong Q1 data; industrial output up 5.7% in January-February, trade surplus and reserves continue to rise |
| 10 March 2003 | High oil prices make year-end inflation target of 10-12% elusive; government agrees to raise crude export tariffs from April; Renault to invest EUR230m |
| 25 February 2003 | Government launches new reform initiatives to develop non-oil sector and raise growth to 7-8% by 2007; GDP up 5.7% and output 4.9% in January |
| 23 February 2003 | Capital inflows surge as Putin rises above oligarch battles, but overheating risk highlights supply-side weakness, at which next administration must target oil wealth |
| 18 February 2003 | Energy reform bills pass second reading after repeated delays, but uncertainty over timing; RUB appreciation plan adds to manufacturing problems |
| 12 February 2003 | BP to buy 50% of TNK/Sidanco for USD6.75bn as RTS continues to outperform western markets; exports rise 5.8% in 2002 on sharp Q4 rise in oil prices |
| 10 February 2003 | GDP grew 4.3% in 2002 on buoyant oil and consumer sectors, but domestic investment still weak; manufacturing PMI falls below 50 in January |
| 9 February 2003 | Putin risks embarrassment of electoral riches as rivals mis-register; new twists in global pipeline politics could add economic dimension to second term isolation |
| 29 January 2003 | Buoyant crude prices encourage oil firms to demand more export capacity to clear threat of bottlenecks; inflation unlikely to dip much below 15% in 2003 |
| 23 January 2003 | Industrial output growth slows to 3.7% in 2002 as robust oil production fails to offset slowdown in non-fuel sectors; retail trade remains robust |
| 20 January 2003 | IMF urges restraint with oil revenue windfall as prices surge to two-year high; debt/GDP falls to 40% in 2002, reserves strengthen; GDP grows 4.1% |
| 9 January 2003 | Oil shipments rise 3.3% in 2002 and stronger than expected oil prices benefit current account and budget; government unlikely to return to debt market in 2003 |
| 17 December 2002 | Q3 GDP grows 4.3% as higher oil prices spur industrial output and exports; retail sales/services outperforming, investment growth weak |
| 9 December 2002 | 2003 budget heads for final approval; revived Lukoil sale boosts plans to meet 2003 debt obligations and signals rising investor faith in managerial capabilities |
| 4 December 2002 | Banking sector benefiting from strong household demand, attracting new depositors and borrowers; reform paves way for greater foreign participation |
| 26 November 2002 | Parliament approves 2003 budget at third reading with no sign of discord as government pledges more tax cuts and slower energy reform |
| 21 November 2002 | US raises steel import quota but growth prospects for the industry remain subject to anti-dumping measures; food and fuel sectors outperform |
| 11 November 2002 | Moscow backs arms inspectors to Iraq as possibility of ‘regime change’ draws closer; promise of high oil prices to boost investment, Jan-Oct oil output up 8.8% |
| 31 October 2002 | World Bank warns of oil dependence and calls for deeper reform, but this is unlikely given electoral timetable; industrial output grows 4% in January-September |
| 28 October 2002 | WTO pushes for more reforms to speed up negotiations; electricity reform bills pass parliament; government/central bank debate capital liberalisation |
| 15 October 2002 | Exports hit 20-month peak in August on surging oil prices; eurobond launch unlikely in near future as government pushes 75% sale of Slavneft |
| 2 October 2002 | Foreign investment rises on strong oil prices and buoyant consumer demand; domestic investment weak, needs more structural reform |
| 26 September 2002 | 2003 budget passes first reading despite usual criticism; strong oil prices ensure both fiscal flexibility and debt servicing, surplus of 0.6% of GDP targeted |
| 23 September 2002 | GDP grows 4.1% in Q2 on stronger oil prices, buoyant consumer demand and pick-up in industrial output; service/retail sectors continue to outperform |
| 9 September 2002 | Putin calls for energy reform to take more notice of “social” considerations as restructuring/price hikes likely to face delay; UES shares plummet |
| 28 August 2002 | July output stronger, outlook for 2003 growth improving; compromise over next year’s spending plans likely as Duma faces election; debt servicing not at risk so far |
| 30 July 2002 | S&P upgrade brings credit rating back to pre-default level; more banking reform and privatisation planned for 2003; inflation unlikely to meet target |
| 23 July 2002 | Opec warns of retaliation as Russia expands market share, but strong oil prices, growing demand and new markets unlikely to deter oil majors |
| 17 July 2002 | Output growth slows to 3.2% in H1 but food sector outperforms; better H2 outlook as steel and fuel industries promise increased exports and investment |
| 8 July 2002 | Manufacturing confidence picks up in June as buoyant oil prices and high real wage growth bode well for stronger output; inflation holding around 15% |
| 1 July 2002 | G8 gives Putin USD20bn for nuclear decommissioning; domestic reform increasingly avoiding economic sphere as energy restructuring faces delay |
| 20 June 2002 | Government approves additional USD700m for existing bonds to finance Soviet-era commercial debt swap; autumn launch of new eurobond likely |
| 12 June 2002 | Central bank may raise 2002 inflation forecast to 15-16% on back of higher oil prices and utility price hikes; but Putin more concerned with achieving faster growth |
| 30 May 2002 | EU-Russia summit confirms Putin as man the west likes to do business with as oil/gas firms seek to penetrate EU market; Prodi promises free-market status |
| 23 May 2002 | Economic relations at centre of upcoming discussions between Putin and Bush; investment, trade concessions, debt restructuring up for negotiation |
| 20 May 2002 | Government announces end of oil export restraint in response to sustained price rises; March output and exports up on stronger oil revenues |
| 8 May 2002 | Stronger investment, continued reformist momentum and buoyant consumer demand suggest return to faster growth in 2003 |
| 2 May 2002 | Still unclear whether oil export cuts will continue into H2; Caspian summit fails to reach agreement on division of seabed |
| 19 April 2002 | Putin criticises government for not targeting stronger growth, urges continued reform in annual state of the nation address |
| 12 April 2002 | Former East German debt deal secured as reward for stronger pro-western stance; buoyant oil prices promise further debt reductions |
| 8 April 2002 | Reduced/simplified tax system for small businesses promises stronger enterprise growth; GDP this year to grow by 4% due to buoyant investment and oil prices |
| 21 March 2002 | New central bank governor promises reform to impress investors, but no radical shake up; exchange rate policy not expected to change |
| 15 March 2002 | Government mulls abolition of steel export tariffs, and support for Q2 oil export cut, in retaliation for US action; ban on US poultry imports takes effect |
| 6 March 2002 | Tensions with Opec and oil price volatility to rise in run-up to March Opec meeting; smaller oil firms and Gazprom remain attractive investment prospects |
| 25 February 2002 | Government announces lower 2003 debt burden following buybacks; utility price hikes encourage greater use of domestic debt as anti-inflation measure |
| 14 February 2002 | January monthly inflation soars to 3.1% after across-the-board price hikes in utilities; Zyuganov seeks political capital from inflationary spectre |
| 6 February 2002 | New corporate governance code launched in bid to shore up support for investment in non-oil sector and push for recognition as market economy |
| 30 January 2002 | Kasyanov promises to reduce role of state as reform process moves up a gear in 2002; WTO membership possible in mid-2003 |
| 23 January 2002 | Central bank denies excessive intervention to support RUB; prospects of increased oil output threaten further oil price and RUB instability |
| 8 January 2002 | Appointment of new railways minister signals start of more structural economic reforms in 2002 while Putin remains popular in polls |
| 18 December 2001 | Government repeats commitment to cut oil exports in 2002, welcomed by Opec as fostering spirit of cooperation; Q3 annual growth slows to 4.9% |
| 12 December 2001 | October trade surplus falls on lower oil revenues, PM casts doubt over planned eurobond issue next year; 2001 GDP growth on target for 5% |
| 6 December 2001 | Oil prices boosted by Russian export cut of 150,000 b/d, Opec still dissatisfied; bond repayment prompts risk upgrade by Moody’s |
| 27 November 2001 | Oil prices fall as decision on output cut delayed; government and oil firms closer to agreement on need for cuts; Illarionov recommends ignoring Opec |
| 16 November 2001 | Kasyanov rejects calls for large cuts in oil output as tensions with Opec rise and price war looms; oil companies unlikely to reach unified agreement on cuts |
| 8 November 2001 | Putin urges government to review 2002 budget as oil prices fall; but strong reserves plus higher than expected budget revenues this year allay funding concerns |
| 1 November 2001 | Putin pledges to maintain reformist momentum as new oil and gas projects promise to increase foreign investment and potential export earnings |
| 24 October 2001 | Prime minister announces Paris Club debt to be repaid ahead of schedule as government pushes for recognition of country as "market economy" |
| 12 October 2001 | Putin promises to repay IMF USD2.7bn ahead of schedule to avoid debt servicing problems in 2003; strong reserves and reform bode well for eurobond launch in 2002 |
| 4 October 2001 | EU and Russia to enjoy increased defence and economic relations following Putin’s meeting with EU leaders; WTO membership talks sustaining momentum |
| 27 September 2001 | : Putin acquiesces to US military role in central Asia; Russia to demand greater say in global issues; debt payment problems resurface yet again |
| 13 September 2001 | Gazprom allowed to increase foreign share ownership in run-up to restructuring; reform necessary for debt servicing |
| 5 September 2001 | Putin predicts 6% growth in 2001 and speaks of encouraging greater economic transparency in attempt to woo investors |
| 29 August 2001 | Putin backs 2002 budget heavy on social spending; passage through Duma to be smoother than last year |
| 6 August 2001 | Government predicts H2 growth at 4.8-5 per cent following better than expected H1 performance |
| 30 July 2001 | US backs WTO entry, but issues remain unresolved; membership may be negotiated along with ABM |
| 18 July 2001 | First bond issue since 1998 crisis planned; budget faces revision as growth/inflation forecasts raised |
| 11 July 2001 | Higher than expected H1 budget surplus reflects strong oil revenues; but planned foreign capital liberalisation threatens strong reserve position and debt servicing |
| 3 July 2001 | Foreign debt reduction plans kept on track by current-account strength; natural monopoly curbs could fuel short-term inflation |
| 29 June 2001 | Reforms verging on farcical as parliament fails to pass money laundering bill, energy reform still lacks clear timetable and land sale debate is marred by fighting |
| 19 June 2001 | Air of compromise marks Putin-Bush summit concerning controversial plans to revise ABM treaty and implicitly recognises Russia as still major global player. |
| 12 June 2001 | Central bank governor believes inflation target will be revised up to 18 per cent; failure to deal with inflation risks 2002 budget and Kasyanov premiership. |
| 6 June 2001 | Small budget surplus proposed for 2002 based on 3-4 per cent GDP growth; success depends on tax reform and shake-up of Gazprom, both uphill struggles |
| 30 May 2001 | Putin tells government to produce realistic 2002 budget; inflation and debt repayments key to maintaining Kasyanov as prime minister. |
| 22 May 2001 | Government plans to reform electricity monopoly ignore concerns of minority shareholders; other unresolved issues include ownership of national grid. |
| 15 May 2001 | RUB allowed to fall to protect industry and combat real appreciation, but needs to be supported by other measures; Putin insists 12 per cent inflation is attainable. |
| 8 May 2001 | Conservative growth forecast for next year, but may become reality as high inflation erodes competitiveness; debt crunch possible in 2002 as growth slows. |
| 3 May 2001 | US plan to revise ABM treaty ill-received in Moscow; relations between Putin and rogue states provide basis for deal which may implicitly involve foreign debt. |
| 24 April 2001 | null |
| 23 April 2001 | Debt/equity swap up for discussion with Germany but disagreements exist over amount; government confidence in negotiations not backed by economic strength. |
| 18 April 2001 | Inflation in 2001 to come in well above official forecasts; further slowdown in manufacturing points to worsening budgetary/debt service problems. |
| 5 April 2001 | Putin prioritises economic reform in state of the nation address; liberalisation of exchange controls may add to economic instability given underlying weaknesses. |
| 2 April 2001 | Rejection of IMF standby illustrates government confidence over economy; but real appreciation of RUB threatens to undermine growth prospects this year. |
| 26 March 2001 | New economic targets for next decade unrealistic given stubborn Duma, slow pace of economic reform and inflation likely to overshoot target. |
| 19 March 2001 | No-confidence motion fails, but potential remains for further confrontation with Duma over the issues of privatisation and debt. |
| 28 February 2001 | Amended budget frees extra revenues for debt repayment but Duma still blocking large-scale privatisations needed to meet total debt servicing for this year. |
| 8 February 2001 | Inflation in 2001 looks set to exceed target outlined in budget as government struggles to control monetary emission. |
| 2 February 2001 | Paris Club debt debate unable to reach a conclusion; IMF arrives for fresh talks which are unlikely to see an agreement. |
| 9 January 2001 | Threat to halt Paris Club debt repayments may be merely the flying of a kite but could prove to be a political move which is out of touch with economic reality. |
| 27 November 2000 | Strong economic results behind the failure to agree reform programme with the IMF; lack of deal dangerous as debt repayments may not be rescheduled. |
| 26 November 2000 | Illarionov comments on oil quotas increase chances of early IMF agreement while Putin lines up foreign buyer for NTV amid accusations of government foul play. |
| 21 September 2000 | Possible Fatherland Party willingness to back the government in Duma boosts chances of budget passage on first reading. |
| 19 September 2000 | Pursuit of IMF deal now official policy; Kudrin is sticks to his guns in budget battle with Duma, but government may have to compromise for passage on first reading. |
| 14 September 2000 | Snub from Putin and renewed corruption allegations put Kasyanov premiership in jeopardy; choice of successor would throw fresh light on presidency. |
| 12 September 2000 | Fischer raises hopes of IMF deal and Gref says land reform back on legislative agenda while increase in money supply boosts calls for structural reforms. |
| 12 September 2000 | Fischer raises hopes of IMF deal and Gref says land reform back on legislative agenda while increase in money supply boosts calls for structural reforms. |
| 11 September 2000 | Duma committee attacks 2001 budget draft, Berezovsky increasingly sidelined while imposition of oil export quotas threatens the possibility of an early IMF agreement. |
| 7 September 2000 | August inflation and money supply falls while new 2001 draft budget calls for comprehensive rescheduling deal with Paris Club. |
| 23 August 2000 | Growth target in 2001 draft budget looks attainable and new laws should encourage investment and boost tax revenues but inflation remains a concern. |
| 11 August 2000 | Budget based on realistic assumptions although the government is banking on a debt deal with the Paris Club while Berezovsky tries to rally support for his new party. |
| 8 August 2000 | Inflation and money supply both look to be moving downward while the targets outlined in the draft budget for 2001 look achievable. |
| 2 August 2000 | Most indicators very positive although inflation remains a worry while Putin pledge to draw a line under privatisation proceeds should boost business confidence. |
| 31 July 2000 | Tax bill success leads Gref to revise up government growth forecasts for the year while Putin offers olive branch to oligarchs by dropping Gusinsky case. |
| 27 July 2000 | Putin meeting with oligarchs set to go ahead but concessions unlikely to be offered; tax reform success boosts Kudrin and Kasyanov. |
| 26 July 2000 | Central bank takes decisive steps to stop inflation getting out of control, July figures unlikely to repeat June highs; Okinawa contacts open chance of Soviet debt deal. |
| 24 July 2000 | Tax reform bill squeezes through the Duma but looks certain to be stalled by the Federation Council, thereby putting next year’s budget in jeopardy. |
| 20 July 2000 | IMF support boosts chances of Putin and Clinton pushing the G7 into agreeing a debt reduction deal in exchange for Russian concessions on the ABM treaty. |
| 19 July 2000 | Split in the communist opposition appears to strengthen Putin while Berezovsky resignation from Duma reflects the weakness of his position. |
| 14 July 2000 | Further crackdowns on oligarchs expected as Putin continues to consolidate his power base; Berezovsky and other members of Yeltsin circle in the firing line. |
| 11 July 2000 | Government nearing agreement with IMF and World Bank but a debt restructuring deal with the Paris club is top of the agenda. |
| 10 July 2000 | Economic indicators point to a sustained recovery but large-scale structural changes still need to be addressed, inflation increase not a cause for concern. |
| 5 July 2000 | While many observers have dismissed Gref plan Putin is preparing the ground for its implementation. |
| 27 June 2000 | Gref growth plan will propose a major overhaul of the tax and banking systems plus moves to boost competition in the energy sector, but implementation is key. |
| 23 June 2000 | The arrest of Gusinsky and the threat to reverse the privatisation of Norilsk Nickel indicate that Putin is prepared to challenge the power of the oligarchs. |
| 16 June 2000 | GDP figures show booming economy fuelled by high prices for energy exports but we will await a detailed breakdown of May figures before revising our 2000 forecasts. |
| 16 June 2000 | GDP figures show booming economy fuelled by high prices for energy exports but we will await a detailed breakdown of May figures before revising our 2000 forecasts. |
| 2 June 2000 | Balanced budget in 2001 based on realistic economic assumptions, but fiscal success will rest on successful implementation of tax reform programme. |
| 19 May 2000 | Kasyanov now acting premier; we are sceptical of rumours against his confirmation in the post; change in structure of cabinet possible but no new faces expected. |
| 19 May 2000 | Putin tests his strength against the regions, and restates pragmatism with cabinet appointments; output eases after earlier surges. |
| 9 May 2000 | Putin calls for tighter 2000 budget, but we remain optimistic about financial perspectives; Duma co-operation also encouraging for speed of reform. |
| 28 April 2000 | Putin vote not just result of lack of alternatives, but also of desire of Russians to live in less exciting times; cabinet likely to reflect pragmatism of new president. |
| 25 April 2000 | Putin calls for tighter 2000 budget, but we remain optimistic about financial perspectives; Duma co-operation also encouraging for speed of reform. |
| 13 April 2000 | Authorities bullish about 2001, but 1999 growth uneven; without structural corrections growth could prove unsustainable; inflation to undershoot official target. |
| 12 April 2000 | Ratings upgrade comes as Council of Europe takes robust Chechnya stand; delicate situation suggests delay to IMF funding pending release of economic programme. |
| 31 March 2000 | Investment data reflect imbalances, but show potential for fulfilling Putin’s key economic pledge; but implementing legislation is still the major problem. |
| 24 March 2000 | January trade data and producer prices show dangers of reliance on oil prices; Putin PR offensive succeeds, broad-based investment key to sustainable growth. |
| 8 March 2000 | Livshits on PR campaign to reassure West of Putin’s reformist credentials, concrete policies still vague; purge may be on way to prepare for battle against oligarchs. |
| 29 February 2000 | Putin’s recent moves suggest that attempt to blame failures of state and Chechnya situation on previous administration is a guiding policy in run-up to presidential election. |
| 23 February 2000 | Industrial output and GDP trends mask weaknesses which could undermine sustained growth in long term; Putin’s will to tackle land reform to be tested by complexity of issue. |
| 14 February 2000 | Allegations of election result falsification reflects lack of trust in state; Putin dictatorship feared, but entrenched interests strong enough to prove significant obstacle to change. |
| 19 January 2000 | Hopes for IMF mission being played down; range of domestic and external factors arising which will need to be cleared before funding can resume, timing may throw budget off course. |
| 17 January 2000 | Putin consolidating his power base in the Kremlin; outlook for 2000 hinges on his willingness to give handling of economy to Kasyanov, which at this stage seems likely. |
| 10 January 2000 | Putin’s victory in presidential elections now seems foregone conclusion, but his future still depends on Chechnya; Stepashin’s fortunes could rise if the war goes awry. |
